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A global economy
on the move

The transportation outlook for 2040


As economies grow, energy demand will increase.

This means more travel and commerical shipping. Meeting the energy needs of the growing middle class will require a mix of innovation and diversification.

What is the OECD?

It is an international forum of 35 developed countries with market-economies – like Australia, Canada, Germany, the U.S. and the U.K. – that work together to promote growth, prosperity and sustainability.

World GDP growth 2015-2040


More cars. More MPG.

There will be 1.8 billion cars, trucks, and SUVs in the world in 2040, up from 1 billion now. However, energy demand will rise at a slower pace because new vehicles will be more efficient and get more miles per gallon.

In 2040, 15 percent of all cars globally will be hybrids. 10 percent of new car sales in the U.S. will be electric vehicles.

infographic#22015 2040

Wage growth drives personal and commercial transportation growth.

When incomes rise, people travel and buy more. The number of vehicles for shipping and personal transportation will increase to meet demand.


more heavy-duty vehicle energy demand


from non-OECD countries


Trade will span the seven seas even more so than today.

Growth in economic activity and personal income drives increasing trade of goods and services, leading to higher energy demand in the commercial transportation sectors.


Less carbon-intensive marine fuel.

Thanks to a range of technologies and energy options, ships will reduce their environmental impact - and cut emissions.


Technology is green-lighting greater fuel efficiency.

Technological advancements will help keep our wheels turning with less energy as the global economy - and its demand for energy - grows.