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Outlook for Energy:
Journey to 2040.

Each year, ExxonMobil analyzes and updates its long-term view on energy supply and demand. Here are seven highlights from the 2017 Outlook for Energy.


Mapping a course to the future.


Wheels up.

As billions of people join the middle class, it will lead to greater travel, additional cars on the road and increased commercial activity to deliver goods and products. With so much more to haul, commercial transportation energy demand will be up 50 percent.


With population growth up 25%, global emissions only rise 10%, with emissions peaking in the 2030s and then declining.


  • More efficient buildings
  • Gains in transportation fuel economy
  • Advances in manufacturing and power plant efficiencies
  • Shifts to less carbon-intensive energy, like natural gas, nuclear and renewables

Natural gas surpasses coal.

Natural gas will comprise 25 percent of all demand in 2040, surpassing coal.


Technologies and policies lead to new energy paths.

Global government policies aimed at reducing CO2 emissions will continue to impact the energy mix. Demand will shift toward less carbon-intensive fuels like natural gas, renewables and nuclear.

By 2040 natural gas will meet 25 percent of energy demand.

By 2040 nuclear and renewables will grow 50 percent approaching 25 percent of energy demand.


Oil will remain the world's primary energy source, fulfilling 1/3 of all demand.

Oil will continue to play a leading role in the energy mix, driven by demand in transportation and feedstock for the chemical industry.


Destination: 2040.

It will take all energy types to meet demand in 2040, and use of each of these energy sources continues to evolve in ways that reduce environmental impact.

In 2040, the projected energy mix will be:

Gears graphic